Everything is headed towards the prices we like.

[Scroll to the bottom for the stocks.]

I’m using TravingView to view all of the watchlist together. But there are a few stocks that are on the verge of our target prices. Below is a snapshot of our watchlist’s prices around 10:30am today.

In my opinion, there’s still more room to go down, especially as Russian forces continue to attack key Ukrainian cities, causing more uncertainty in the market.

Why am I buying? Is the market at a bottom?

No, but the end is in sight.

Our watchlist tends to move in a more exaggerated version of the market. Below is a graph of our watchlist on Tradingview.com.

We see margin debt as a lagging indicator of the market, which we represent via the S&P. So if the S&P moves down, our watchlist tends to move even further down.

We saw a ~$150B decline in margin debt between December 2021 and January 2022.

In the previous two crashes/recessions we saw changes of similar magnitude, with respect to the amount of positive change prior, that indicated the start of a crash/recession. In both cases, there were at least two months of those large changes, then the dollar-value of change in margin crossed $0, then dropped even more before bouncing back up.

So, if we assume this behavior will happen again, then we have about a month more of downside.

This is a very naïve assumption though.

We had a mini-crash last year, followed by a real recession, and we only have two crashes (i.e. data points) on which to base this assumption.

As a result, we’re buying little-by-little.

Below are the stocks.